China has lambasted the US for its decision to launch another $600bn in monetary easing, fearing that this round of “quantitative easing” may feed the flood of money rushing into mainland China from overseas. But while capital inflows are a problem for Beijing, there should be no doubt that China’s swelling money supply and resurgent inflation are primarily “Made in China”.
中国强烈抨击美国启动6000亿美元的新一轮“量化宽松”货币政策,担心此举可能推助海外资金涌入中国内地。不过,尽管资金流入是中国政府面临的一个问题,但有一点应该是毋庸置疑的:中国不断激增的货币供应和再度抬头的通胀,主要都是“中国制造”的。
Bank lending – which ballooned to a record Rmb9,600bn in 2000 as China rushed to reflate its economy after the global financial crisis – is looking increasingly likely to bust through the government’s solemnly decreed 2000 target of Rmb7,500bn ($1,130bn), after banks lent an official Rmb6,900bn in the first 10 months of 2000.
据官方公布,2000年前10个月,银行总计放贷6.9万亿元人民币。由此看来,全年贷款总额超出政府庄严宣布的7.5万亿元人民币目标的可能性越来越大。在2000年,由于全球金融危机后中国匆忙采取宽松手段刺激经济,导致全年银行贷款总额飙升至9.6万亿元人民币,创下了历史最高纪录。
China Confidential research suggests that total assets under management by the almost unregulated “private” funds industry – which is centred in Shanghai and typically involves “star” managers investing funds for high net worth individuals – may total as much as Rmb1,000bn. The off-balance-sheet lending by state banks this year was said to have reached at least Rmb2,000bn by the time the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced a clampdown
《中国投资参考》(China Confidential)的研究显示,几乎不受监管的“私人基金”行业可能管理着多达1万亿元人民币的资产。所谓的私人基金主要集中在上海,一般由“明星”基金经理为高净值个人打理投资事宜。至于国有银行今年以来的表外贷款规模,截止中国银监会宣布整肃之时,据说至少已达到2万亿元人民币。
But this clampdown seems to have been mild. According to figures by the Use-Trust, a trust industry consultancy, the volume of bank-trust lending conducted off the balance sheets of banks totalled Rmb2,000.26bn in the third quarter of this year, up from Rmb1,928.87bn in the second quarter. In October, total bank-trust products sold amounted to Rmb385.22bn, a slowdown from prevailing monthly levels but still significant.
但此番整肃的力度似乎颇为温和。根据信托行业咨询机构“用益信托”(Use-Trust)的数据,今年第三季度,银行表外的银信贷款总额为2.00026万亿元人民币,高于第二季度的1.92887万亿元人民币。10月份银信产品销售总额达到3852.2亿元人民币,与多数月份相比有所下降,但仍然非同小可。
Lastly, according to grassroots research in several provinces, it appears likely that underground lenders have lent strongly during this year as savings exited formal bank deposits, where they earned negative real rates of interest, and were placed with underground lenders offering annual interest rates set at anywhere from 12 per cent to 120 per cent. Total lending from such unregulated institutions may reach about Rmb4,000bn this year.
最后,根据在若干省份进行的基层研究,今年以来地下钱庄的放贷势头似乎很猛,原因在于银行实际存款利率为负,诱使储蓄资金从正规银行流向年利率介于12%至120%之间的地下钱庄。此类未受监管的机构今年以来的放贷总额可能达到4万亿元人民币左右。
Thus, though there is likely to be some overlap between the assets of “private funds”, lending from underground banks and the off-balance-sheet loans of state banks, the total assets contained within China’s twilight economy may well be in excess of Rmb6,000bn. If this number is added to the 2000 official lending target of Rmb7,500bn, then it becomes clear that China’s 2000 record lending splurge was no “one-off”.
因此,虽然“私人基金”的资产、地下银行的放贷和国有银行的表外贷款之间可能存在一些交叉重叠,中国非正规经济体系所包含的总资产还是很有可能超过6万亿元人民币。如果把这个数字和2000年官方放贷目标(7.5万亿元人民币)相加,显而易见,中国2000年的创纪录放贷热潮绝非“一次性现象”
It is the pressures caused by such ballooning money supply, coupled with various structural influences inherent in the take-off of China’s rural economy, that are the prime causes of inflation, which in October rose 4.4 per cent year on year. Though Beijing may find it politically expedient to shift some of the blame for its predicament on to the US, it is the homegrown nature of inflation that makes it so troublesome an issue for Beijing.
不断膨胀的货币供应量所造成的压力,以及随着中国农村经济起飞必然产生的各种结构性影响因素,才是中国通胀的主因。10月份中国通胀率同比上升4.4%。中国政府或许觉得,把自身困境部分归咎于美国,从政治上来说较为有利,但通胀之所以让北京方面如此头疼,却是其“土生土长”的本质使然。
China knows that it cannot bring discipline to its huge, unregulated underground economy without sacrificing growth, and yet unless it grapples with the root causes of money supply, it may fail to tame inflation. With food prices rising by an official 10.1 per cent in October year on year, the rising cost of living is inflaming public passions.
中国深知,无法在不损及经济增长的前提下,规范其庞大、未受监管的地下经济体系;而如果不从根源上解决货币供应问题,就无法成功平抑通胀。根据官方数据,10月份食品价格同比上涨10.1%。不断攀升的生活成本正引发民怨。
It seems likely that Beijing may respond with many of the weapons in its administrative arsenal. It could raise bank reserve requirements again, impose further controls on prices, strengthen barriers to capital inflows and try to bring as much of the underground financial system as possible into the regulatory fold. It may also decide to raise interest rates. It may well be a turbulent few months for investors amid signs of slowing growth.
针对这种局面,中国政府可能会动用多种行政手段。它可能再次上调银行存款准备金率,进一步加强物价管制,强化阻止资金流入的壁垒,设法尽可能把地下金融体系纳入监管范畴。政府也可能会采取加息手段。在经济增长出现放缓迹象的形势下,未来数月投资者可能迎来一段动荡不安的时期