[中文] 在强大的刺激政策与存货调整周期的作用下,2000年中国宏观经济成功走出了自2000年三季度以来深度下滑的低谷。虽然外贸形势依然严峻,但在投资和消费扩张的引领下,实体经济出现超预期反弹,通胀预期开始抬头,资产价格快速提升,宏观经济景气快速回升,中国宏观经济整体开始进入“政策刺激性反弹阶段”向“市场需求反弹阶段”的过渡阶段, 2000年的宏观经济在超预期反弹的表现下呈现出以下8大特点。
1.各种GDP、投资、消费、工业增加值、财政收入、企业利润以及总体宏观经济景气指数等指标都出现了大幅度回升,远远超过各级经济主体的预期,中国宏观经济成功摆脱了世界经济危机冲击下的深度下滑,实现了超预期的触底反弹。
2.从总量来看,GDP同比增速逐季提升,呈现V型反弹的态势,但从环比增速来看, 呈现V型+倒V型,中国宏观经济并没有出现2个季度以上的持续加速局面,环比增速的波动表明中国宏观经济政策刺激效应已经度过其加速阶段,开始步入平稳增长阶段。
3.从部门指标来看,工业增加值、企业利润、发电量、财政收入、PMI指数等指标的同比增速出现大幅度的提高,但一方面由于财政收入、发电量、贸易顺差以及PMI指数等指标存在着结构性变异等因素,另一方面其总额依然处于历史较低水平,因此,这些指标同比增速提升所反映的宏观经济状况与实际的宏观经济状况存在偏差,宏观经济的反弹力度要小于这些数据的状况。
4.从经济增长的因素来看,触底回升与超预期反弹的因素是多元的,既有内需扩张、存货调整的因素,也有基数效应的因素,经济增长的核心动力依然来源于政策刺激性反弹和存货周期调整,市场性自发需求依然低迷,具有强烈的局部性和易变性,标志着经济全面复苏的核心指标——“市场自我循环、自我驱动的内生增长动力机制”还远远没有形成。中国宏观经济处于“政策刺激性反弹阶段”向“市场需求反弹阶段”的过渡阶段,具有强烈的结构不平衡性、动力不稳定性、增长要素缺少互动性等特点。这决定了中国宏观经济具有易变性,产出缺口依然存在大幅波动的可能。
5.从经济结构来看,经济下滑以及经济刺激的双重作用使中国宏观经济结构出现了外需比重 、重化工比重、东部比重以及单位GDP能耗等指标下降的重大变化,但这些变化大部分具有短暂性和过渡性的特点,中国重化工业的率先反弹、下游产业和出口产业的持续低迷意味着中国结构性问题将进一步凸现。
6.在极度宽松的货币政策与流动性向实体经济渗透性低下的双重力量作用下,资产价格快速上涨,地产价格与房产价格同步提升的“正反馈机制”的形成将使房地产复苏的可持续性受到挑战。
7.在货币极度扩张、中国经济率先反弹、全球大宗商品价格恢复性上涨等因素的作用下,中国通货膨胀预期抬头,在引领经济预期逆转的同时,也给中国宏观经济复苏带来了巨大的冲击。
8.由于基数效应、全球经济走出低谷等因素,虽然中国自2000年第四季度起进出口同比增速将大幅度改进,但进口增速的反弹速度将明显超过出口反弹的速度,中国外需的形势依然较为严峻。[/中文]
[外文] Owing to the stimulant policies and inventory adjustment cycle, China’s macro-economy in 2000 has climbed out of the economic trough successfully which began from the third quarter of 2000. Although the situation of foreign trade remains serious, the real economy rebounds unexpectedly under the guidance of investment and consumption expansion; inflation expectation begins to resurge; asset prices increase rapidly; and macro-economy made a turnaround during a short period. Generally speaking, our macro-economy has entered a rebound stage of transition from policy incentive to market demand and with such unexpected rebound it presents 8 major characteristics as follows:
1. Indicators such as various GDPs, investment, consumption, added value of industrial output, financial revenue, business profit and overall prosperity index of macro-economy begin to pick up by a big margin, exceeding expectations of economic bodies at all levels. China succeeds in throwing off the continuous drop in macro-economy which is due to the impact of the global financial crisis and achieves an economic bounce from the bottom out of all expectations.
2. In terms of gross amount, the growth rate of GDP increases quarter by quarter compared to the same period of 2000 and its growth curve can be shown as ‘v’. However, on a monthly basis there is not a continuous growth that has lasted more than two quarters and its growth curve can be shown as ‘ ‘v’+ inverted ‘v’ ’. The fluctuation of the growth rate on a month-on-month basis, therefore, shows that under the influence of stimulant policies our macro-economy has experienced a transition from accelerated rebound to smooth increase.
3. In terms of departmental indexes, the growth rate of indexes such as added value of industrial output, business profit, power capacity, financial revenue and PMI increases by a large margin compared to the same period of 2000. However, there are certain factors such as structural variation of indexes like financial revenue, power capacity, trade surplus and PMI on the one hand; and the total amount is still at a relatively low level on the other hand. Thus the macro-economic situation reflected by the growth rate of those indexes deviates from the reality, that is, the real margin of macro-economic rebound is smaller than that evaluated by those indexes.
4. In terms of factors influencing economic growth, there are pluralistic ones which have effect on rising from the bottom and rebounding unexpectedly. They include not only domestic demand expansion or inventory adjustment but also base effect. The core impetuous of economic growth remains derived from the rebound stimulated by policies and the adjustment of inventory cycle. The spontaneous demand in the market is still depressed with the great locality and mutability, which marks that the core indicator for the all-around economic recovery—the dynamic mechanism for endogenous growth which can achieve self-cycling and self-driving of market—has far from being formed. At the transitional rebound stage from policy incentive to market demand, our macro-economy possesses features such as structural imbalance, dynamic instability, lack of interaction between growth factors and so on. The above features determine the changeability of our macro-economy and it is still possible for the deficiency of output to have a sharp fluctuation.
5. In terms of economic structure, both economic slowdown and economic incentive bring our macro-economic structure a series of great changes that indexes such as proportion of international demand, heavy chemical industry and eastern region and energy consumption per unit of GDP have declined but most of those changes are momentary and transitional. The initial rebound of China’s heavy chemical industry and the continuous recession of downstream and export industries indicate that China’s structural problems will appear distinctly further.
6. Due to the extremely easy monetary policy and the downward trend from the liquidity to the permeability of real economy, the asset prices increases rapidly. Meanwhile, the formation of positive feedback mechanism, which refers to the synchronized increase in prices of real estate and house property, will challenge the sustainable recovery of real estate.
7. Due to the extreme expansion of money, the initial rebound of our economy and the run-up of prices of world staple commodities, China’s inflation is expected to resurge. It does not only reverse the economic expectation but also gives our macro-economic recovery a great impact.
8. Due to the base effect and the recovery of global economy, the growth rate of import and export will obtain a tremendous improvement since the fourth quarter in 2000 compared to the same period of the previous year whereas the rebound speed of import growth rate will exceed that of export obviously. Therefore, the situation of China’s international demand remains grave.[/外文]
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